Nifty started the new August series today on a negative note. The reason is not far to seek- Less than expected results from companies in US as well as India.
We closed around 5350 today and I believe major indices should remain under pressure in first few sessions of new series and we may see a correction of around 5% which may take nifty to levels of around 5100 where we may see a bounce. I believe Reliance,ICICI Bank and Autos should see selling at all higher levels while action should shift to speculatives like few stocks in reality, fertilizers and financials like India infoline and even a JP Associates should see buying at lower levels.
I believe a JP at around 111-112/-, India Infoline around 85-86/-, HDIL around 258-260/-, Chambal around 65-66/- and even a Unitech around 78/- should be very good levels in coming couple of weeks can be grabbed for a 15-20% upside in second half of August series.
My range for Nifty in August series is 5120-5450.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Review for week beginning 19th July
Nifty displayed amazing strength in week goneby on back of Strong monsoons and good quarterly nos. so far but further gains seem unlikely in coming week.
Markets are expected to remain choppy in coming week with alternate bouts of buying and selling as long positions will be created in counters expecting good results while shorts would be created in others in anticipation of poor results and interest rate hikes in credit policy on 27th July.
One should but autos like Tata Motors, Maruti and M&M on every decline while reality and banking can be shorted on higher levels.
Expect Nifty to open lower on monday due to fall 0f 250 points in dow and 5250 should provide first support on downside. While on upside, 5400+ should see heavy selling. If 5250 gives way, one may see even 5100 in latter half of coming week.
My range for nifty in coming week is 5100-5400.
Markets are expected to remain choppy in coming week with alternate bouts of buying and selling as long positions will be created in counters expecting good results while shorts would be created in others in anticipation of poor results and interest rate hikes in credit policy on 27th July.
One should but autos like Tata Motors, Maruti and M&M on every decline while reality and banking can be shorted on higher levels.
Expect Nifty to open lower on monday due to fall 0f 250 points in dow and 5250 should provide first support on downside. While on upside, 5400+ should see heavy selling. If 5250 gives way, one may see even 5100 in latter half of coming week.
My range for nifty in coming week is 5100-5400.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
View for the Week beginning 5th July
The next week promises to be full of excitement as RBI announced 25bp rate hike on weekend. Add to it the 'dow effect' as dow has fallen below the crucial support of 9800 and bears couldn't ask for more on opening on Monday.
Expect Nifty to open below 5200 for first time in July series and face further pressure from 'trapped longs'. I believe we will test 5100 in first half of coming week and in face of any further 'bad news', we may even test 5000 in coming week.
There are little chance of further gains in Nifty, at least in coming week as 5350 poses 'stiff resistance' on upside. The range for Nifty in coming week looks to be 4950-5350. Reality and Banking may see slight 'short covering' at lower levels while autos and fertilizers should be accumulated at every fall.
Expect Nifty to open below 5200 for first time in July series and face further pressure from 'trapped longs'. I believe we will test 5100 in first half of coming week and in face of any further 'bad news', we may even test 5000 in coming week.
There are little chance of further gains in Nifty, at least in coming week as 5350 poses 'stiff resistance' on upside. The range for Nifty in coming week looks to be 4950-5350. Reality and Banking may see slight 'short covering' at lower levels while autos and fertilizers should be accumulated at every fall.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
View for 1st July
I don't know how many of you acted on my advise yesterday to exit 'stuck' Long positions and create fresh 'shorts' at higher levels.
Dow lost almost another 100 points to close below crucial support of 9800. What this means is that we are going to open at least a % lower around 5250 and after a 'sluggish' first half where some feeble attempt at recovery may provide oppurtunity to create further 'shorts'.
Expect 5200 to be tested today in second half after Europe opens and if broken, support comes only around 5150. Inflation data too should be 'very high' today and may add to woes. My range for the day is 5140-5280 with reality and banks ideal for Shorting.
Dow lost almost another 100 points to close below crucial support of 9800. What this means is that we are going to open at least a % lower around 5250 and after a 'sluggish' first half where some feeble attempt at recovery may provide oppurtunity to create further 'shorts'.
Expect 5200 to be tested today in second half after Europe opens and if broken, support comes only around 5150. Inflation data too should be 'very high' today and may add to woes. My range for the day is 5140-5280 with reality and banks ideal for Shorting.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
View for 30th June
Nifty opened around 5250 on back of 260 point loss in Dow. Expect Nifty to test 5200 today which is a crucial support. One can buy any dip below 5200 keeping a stop loss of 5180, and if 5180 is broken, expect 5100 by today or tomorrow as inflation data which should be very high on account of 'fuel price hike'.
Expect RBI to raise rates this weekend, so we may see a 'preciptous fall' in next 2-3 sessions this week if global weakness persists. In no case, 'serious buying' should be attempted except for intra-day trading for max 30-40 points while shorting won't be a bad option at all at all higher levels.
I have advised shorting in bank and reality stocks in last few sessions and they have given good gains on those while only pocket of strength has been 'fertilizers' which have been repeatedly recommended by me for both trading and investment.
Expect RBI to raise rates this weekend, so we may see a 'preciptous fall' in next 2-3 sessions this week if global weakness persists. In no case, 'serious buying' should be attempted except for intra-day trading for max 30-40 points while shorting won't be a bad option at all at all higher levels.
I have advised shorting in bank and reality stocks in last few sessions and they have given good gains on those while only pocket of strength has been 'fertilizers' which have been repeatedly recommended by me for both trading and investment.
View for Week beginning 28th June
No doubt, fundamentals of our markets are good but our markets can't ignore effect of global negative news or even inflation fears on itself.
Nifty should find it difficult to cross 5400 this week. On Monday, it saw levels of around 5350 only to give up all its gains on tuesday to currently quote around 5250. I had already warned of violet moves in my monthly report and that is exactly what we are seeing today.
5200 is likely to be tested by tomorrow and markets should revolve around 5200 for rest of the week. I expect markets to move 100 point up or down around 5200 for remaining 3 sessions which gives us a range of 5100-5300.
I believe one should look at side counters where results are expected to be good like Auto, Fertilizers while interest rate sensitives like Reality and Banking should be shorted at all higher levels.
Nifty should find it difficult to cross 5400 this week. On Monday, it saw levels of around 5350 only to give up all its gains on tuesday to currently quote around 5250. I had already warned of violet moves in my monthly report and that is exactly what we are seeing today.
5200 is likely to be tested by tomorrow and markets should revolve around 5200 for rest of the week. I expect markets to move 100 point up or down around 5200 for remaining 3 sessions which gives us a range of 5100-5300.
I believe one should look at side counters where results are expected to be good like Auto, Fertilizers while interest rate sensitives like Reality and Banking should be shorted at all higher levels.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
View for 25th June
nullNifty should open below 5300 on back of major fall in dow overnight. Expect very volatile trade today as Nifty can go down and found support around 5250, and even if that breaks, 5200 should hold today.
On upside, no major gains expected today as markets globally are weak. Expect a nifty range of 5220-5340 today. Expect long build-up in fertilizers and Autos.nullnullnull
On upside, no major gains expected today as markets globally are weak. Expect a nifty range of 5220-5340 today. Expect long build-up in fertilizers and Autos.nullnullnull
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